The Game of Fluctuating Interests: USA and the Security Architecture in the South China Sea

Throughout the past period, both the U.S and China further expanded their escalation actions (especially during the Trump and the Biden administrations). Within this context, the aim of this paper is to analyze the structural factors that steer the Chinese side to either keep escalating (potentially invading Taiwan), or to practice fluctuation of interests. By questioning the balance of power theorem between China and their adversaries (notably the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia). The literature about China's rise is voluminous, and consistently pinpoints key historical moments of increased tensions among the Western and Eastern fronts. Evidence points to significant variations within the Chinese modus operandi when it comes to use of force in territorial disputes. As it stands, our position is that barriers to direct conflict between the U.S and China are far too significant.