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ESBSD: An Essay on the New Exponential Smoothing Methodology Applied to the Projection of the Population of Belo Horizonte

06 September 2022, Version 2
Working Paper
This content is an early or alternative research output and has not been peer-reviewed by Cambridge University Press at the time of posting.

Abstract

Population projection is essential for the public and private sectors because it is possible to estimate the number of people that will be served by infrastructure works and services. In this paper, a mathematical model based on alternative exponential smoothing was presented, tested, and approved in thousands of real case studies in different fields of study. Using this method and after obtaining data from previous years, projections were raised for the years 2022 to 2034 for the city of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.

Keywords

Population Projection
Exponential Smoothing
Time Series
Statistics
Belo Horizonte

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Version History

Sep 06, 2022 Version 2

Version Notes

As a way to improve the reader's understanding, the new version of this document aimed to "aesthetically" improve some points present, such as images and text layout. Also, to further reinforce its scientific character, the author added a short paragraph in the conclusion section, emphasizing not only its strengths but also its limitations.

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The content is available under CC BY NC SA 4.0 [opens in a new tab]

DOI

10.33774/coe-2022-vz5v2-v2
D O I: 10.33774/coe-2022-vz5v2-v2 [opens in a new tab]

Author’s competing interest statement

The author(s) have declared they have no conflict of interest with regard to this content

Ethics

The author(s) have declared ethics committee/IRB approval is not relevant to this content

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