Long-Term Forecasting: A MAED Application for Residential Water Heating in South Africa (2024–2040)

This article aims to provide an analysis of water heating within South Africa’s residential energy demand. With the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) this work investigates four scenarios that account for varying degrees of governmental intervention and policy implementation, specifically in the context of the South African National Standards (SANS 10400-XA2). The three scenarios are designed to assess impacts on energy consumption, focusing primarily on the adoption of solar water heaters across different income groups from 2020 to 2040. The analysis reveals that solar thermal use, when coupled with effective policy support, can significantly mitigate the reliance on traditional, carbon-intensive fuels, particularly within low-to-middle-income households. Through the promotion of said solar water heaters and improved water access, living standards can be enhanced for vulnerable populations while simultaneously mitigating climate change effects. Findings also indicate that strong governmental support is essential for realizing significant energy savings and achieving equitable access to sustainable energy technologies. In the absence of such support, the anticipated benefits of energy efficiency improvements and emissions reductions may not be fully achieved. This is true particularly for low-to-middle-income households that are more likely to remain dependent on fuels with negative health and environmental implications.