Long-term energy system modelling in developing countries: an open-source optimization approach for energy transition analysis in Ghana

Access to clean and sustainable energy technologies is critical for all nations, particularly developing countries in Africa. Ghana has committed to ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, aiming for 10% and 20% variable renewable energy integration by 2030 and 2070, respectively. This study explores potential pathways for Ghana to achieve its renewable energy production targets amidst a growing energy demand. The Open-source energy modelling tool (OSeMOSYS) was used to assess four scenarios accounting for current policies and additional alternatives to pursue energy transition goals. The results indicate that total power generation and installed capacity would increase across all scenarios, with natural gas playing a key role. Total electricity generation is projected to grow between 10 and 20 times due to different electrification levels. Renewable energy production has the potential to reach more than 50% of total electricity generation by 2070. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions reduction is achievable with nuclear energy being critical to support renewables. Alternative pathways based on clean energy production may provide cost savings of around $11-$14 billion compared to a business-as-usual case. The findings underscore the necessity of robust policies and regulatory frameworks to support this transition, providing insights applicable to other developing countries with similar energy profiles.