Resilient Pathways for Zambia's Power System: Modelling a Low-Carbon Future Using the PyPSA-Earth-Zambia Framework

Zambia’s electricity sector is heavily reliant on hydropower, constituting 84% of its generation capacity. This dependency exposes the nation to significant risks from climate-induced hydrological variability, as seen in recent droughts that led to severe load shedding and economic disruption. Addressing this challenge is critical to achieving universal electricity access, enhancing energy security, and aligning with global decarbonisation goals. This study employs the PyPSA-Earth Zambia framework to evaluate twelve integrated scenarios that incorporate electricity demand growth, hydrological variability, and coal power. By analysing these scenarios, the research investigates the trade-offs between maintaining grid stability, achieving climate targets, and expanding equitable access to electricity by 2030. The methodology uniquely combines detailed energy modelling with scenario-based planning to assess Zambia’s options for a resilient energy transition. Key findings highlight that solar and wind energy are pivotal in diversifying Zambia’s energy mix, reducing reliance on hydropower, and mitigating climate risks. Renewable-dominant scenarios demonstrate long-term cost advantages and environmental benefits, despite higher initial capital investments, while coal-reliant pathways undermine climate commitments. Flexible technologies, such as biomass and battery storage, are critical for maintaining grid reliability during periods of low hydropower output. The study provides actionable insights for policymakers, including prioritising decentralised renewable solutions, modernising infrastructure, and leveraging innovative financing mechanisms to attract private investment. By addressing Zambia’s climate-water-energy nexus, this research contributes a blueprint for sustainable development, offering lessons for other nations facing similar energy challenges and aligning with Sustainable Development Goals 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and 13 (Climate Action).