Informing energy policy and transition: An assessment of hydrogen and ammonia integration in Egypt using open energy system optimisation modelling

Egypt has recently developed a low-carbon hydrogen strategy to enhance energy security, sup-port its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), and address geopolitical pressures on fossil fuel imports. As an emerging hydrogen hub, Egypt aims to phase out grey hydrogen while scaling up renewable-based production. In this study, we assess the feasibility of hydrogen integration using the open-source energy modelling system (OSeMOSYS). We develop multiple scenarios from 2019 to 2050, evaluating their impact on emissions, energy security, technology deployment, and costs. The results indicate that achieving the 2030 hydrogen production targets is feasible under both central- and green-demand scenarios, provided sufficient investment is mobilised. Meeting NDC renewable energy targets is also viable through decommissioning steam methane reforming (SMR) and prioritising off-grid renewables for flexibility. Ammonia emerges as a key hydrogen carrier for storage and export. These findings offer insights for policymakers on cost-effective strategies to scale hydrogen while maintaining energy resilience.