Economic determinants of crime: evidence in the Philippines from 1998-2018

17 October 2025, Version 1
This content is an early or alternative research output and has not been peer-reviewed by Cambridge University Press at the time of posting.

Abstract

Crime is a primary social and economic concern in the Philippines that affects many industries. The study investigated the effect of Employment Rate, Income Inequality, Inflation, Education Level, and Economic Growth in the Philippines` Crime Rate during 1998-2018 (20 years). Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was utilized for stationarity, and Jarque Bera Statistics for normality. Researchers examined the results using Linear Regression Analysis with Heteroskedasticity Correction. This research also employed descriptive statistics through the use of graphical analysis. This study found a significant increase in crime due to the rise in informal employment in the Philippines; a significant increase in crime when income inequality measured by 90-100 percentile increases; and a significant decrease in crime when inflation measured by the consumer price index increases; meanwhile, education using mean years of schooling indicates a not significant result; lastly the study revealed a significant decrease in crime when Real GDP increases. This shows that increasing economic growth helps individuals maintain a stable income. The study suggested that the government should spend more on living-wage jobs. A more robust economy can reduce crime; thus, the government should give legal opportunities to less fortunate people. This allows individuals to engage in legal activities and earn a living wage.

Keywords

Informal employment
Income Inequality
Inflation
Education
Real Gross Domestic Product

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