Agricultural Demand under Socioeconomic Transitions and Climate Stress: Implications for Kenya’s Energy - Land System

Agricultural productivity relies on resources such as energy, land, and water, which collectively drive food production and local incomes. However, in most countries, these resources are increasingly strained by evolving socio-economic conditions and climate variability, impacting land use and food security. This study studies how dietary changes towards animal products may impact resource use in Kenya using an integrated assessment approach. Here, we demonstrate that shifting dietary needs increases the gross energy consumption by 77% above the baseline by 2040, resulting in higher emissions. Furthermore, in the extreme climate change pathway, the modelled grassland allocated for livestock rearing and management expands by 106% by 2040, encroaching on forest land. These findings illustrate that evolving socioeconomic factors, such as dietary preferences, coupled with climate change, may intensify energy-use and land-use trade-offs within the agricultural system, underscoring the need for sustainable interventions, such as alternative energy transitions, land-use safeguards, productivity improvement, and consistent use of integrated assessment approaches to support long-term resource planning.