Disaggregating Cooking Transitions: Urban and Rural Energy Demand and Emissions Pathways in Ghana

In Ghana, an estimated 67 to 75% of households rely on firewood or charcoal as their primary cooking fuel despite one of the highest electrification rates in West Africa, contributing to approximately 16,000 premature deaths and 7.5 million metric tonnes of CO2-equivalent annually. Household air pollution from solid fuel combustion caused approximately 2.8 million deaths globally in 2023, with health burdens falling disproportionately on women and children. National-level cooking energy demand projections aggregate urban and rural populations whose fuel choice, pollution exposure, and policy needs differ markedly, concealing the subnational inequalities that effective clean cooking policy must address. This study applies the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) to project cooking energy demand, PM2.5, and CO2 emissions for urban and rural Ghana from 2023 to 2050 under three scenarios ranging from a stated-policies baseline to a low-carbon transition. Under stated policy conditions, urban cooking energy demand grows while rural demand declines with urbanisation, yet rural areas retain 60% of national PM2.5 emissions by 2050 despite reduced energy consumption. The most ambitious scenario shows national demand falling by 36% despite a 56% population increase, with PM2.5 and CO2 declining by approximately 99% and 63%, respectively. Current policy commitments are insufficient to achieve absolute emissions reductions in the cooking sector, with CO2 reaching 21% above the 2023 baseline by 2050. National aggregate projections overstate the emissions benefit of urban-led fuel transitions and understate the persistent rural pollution burden. This modelling framework can be replicated in other biomass-dependent economies across sub-Saharan Africa.