A Meta-Analysis of the Economic Effects of Global Oil Price Shocks on the Philippine Economy

The Philippines, a net oil importer with petroleum accounting for roughly 45 percent of its primary energy mix, is highly exposed to global oil price shocks. This paper synthesizes the empirical literature on the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on the Philippine economy, with a particular focus on the 2022 Russia–Ukraine war episode. We review 32 studies published between 2000 and 2024, drawing on Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) working papers, Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) discussion papers, peer-reviewed journal articles, and multilateral reports. Four transmission channels are examined: consumer price inflation pass-through, the Philippine peso–U.S. dollar exchange rate, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and the BSP’s monetary policy response. The synthesis yields four findings. First, the short-run oil-to-CPI pass-through coefficient lies in the 0.05–0.30 range, with headline inflation responding more strongly than core. Second, a 10 percent rise in Brent prices is associated with a 1–3 percent depreciation of the peso within four quarters. Third, the same shock reduces Philippine GDP growth by an estimated 0.1–0.5 percentage points within one year. Fourth, BSP responded to the 2022 episode with a cumulative 300 basis points of policy rate hikes, anchoring inflation expectations at the cost of slower growth. Heterogeneity across studies reflects differences in sample periods, identification strategies, and model specifications.