Dynamic Nuclear Stability: Recovery Dominance under Coupled Disturbance

Nuclear deterrence stability is treated as a dynamic question: after a disturbance, do internal responses dissipate pressure or reproduce it? The framework combines a positive-state safety potential, an associated risk variable, a third-order crisis-momentum subsystem, and a composite Lyapunov certificate. Its claim is conditional and model-level: a modeled deterrence system is locally restoring when recovery and damping dominate disturbance accumulation. The approach distinguishes shock magnitude from recovery capacity, static survivability from dynamic restoration, and deterministic invariance from stochastic first-passage risk. It offers Department of the Air Force and Department of Defense analysts a structured way to examine how warning, NC3 resilience, communications latency, space dependence, and cross-domain disturbance affect crisis-pressure persistence.