Expanding quantitative energy transition modelling research processes within LMICs to integrate qualitative considerations and methodologies.

Access to clean energy is crucial for reducing greenhouse gas emission, improving livelihoods and enabling critical development efforts in sectors such as education, health, and the economy which often disproportionately impact vulnerable and marginalised groups. Energy transition research has emerged within energy planning in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to address the need to transition to clean, renewable, and efficient energy alongside meeting the increasing economic, social, behavioural, and technological needs of a developing society. Quantitative energy transition modelling is a widely employed methodology for analysing energy systems and providing insights into possible future development pathways. Yet such methods are often critiqued for their reductionary nature, and failure to capture the wider contextual real-world complexities in which energy decisions are made. Integrating qualitative methodologies and considerations into energy modelling processes offers an opportunity to strengthen techno-economic based research, more successfully capturing the parameters and boundaries in which energy planning processes sit. This research will attempt to conceptualise the integration of qualitative methodologies into quantitative modelling research for LMICs. This research recommends that qualitative considerations, such as social dynamics, human behaviour and institutional factors alongside a particular focus on gender and social inclusion (GESI), resilience and climate adaptation awareness, be examined and integrated at all stages of the modelling research process, conceptualised into four phases: (1) ‘Pre-Modelling’, (2) ‘Storytelling and Narratives’, (3) ‘The Model’, and (4) ‘Beyond the Model’.