Integrating qualitative factors in quantitative energy transition modelling for development.

Energy transition research in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) often employs quantitative modelling to analyse possible future development pathways which leverage clean, renewable, and efficient energy to meet societal needs and promote development. Yet such quantitative methods are often critiqued for their reductionary nature, and failure to capture the wider contextual real-world complexities in which energy decisions are made. Integrating qualitative considerations into energy modelling offers an opportunity to strengthen techno-economic research by more successfully capturing the parameters and boundaries in which energy planning processes sit. Through presenting a framework for qualitative integration into energy transition modelling for development – such as extensive stakeholder co-production, qualitative storylines, and contextual analysis – this paper outlines feasible steps for qualitative incorporation at all phases of the modelling research process. It recommends that qualitative considerations, such as social dynamics, human behaviour and institutional factors - alongside a particular focus on gender and social inclusion (GESI), resilience and climate adaptation awareness - be examined and integrated at all stages of the modelling research process, conceptualised into four phases: (1) ‘Pre-Modelling’, (2) ‘Storytelling and Narratives’, (3) ‘The Model’, and (4) ‘Beyond the Model’.